Why I write this...
...and a directory of sorts. Start here!
The future of our planet is being decided right now — in the rivers that sustain life, the forests we rely on for climate resilience, and the choices we make about what to protect.
Hi — welcome to Predirections! Future-focused writing on biodiversity, climate, and water — by Dr. Jonathan Tonkin.
I’m an Associate Professor of ecology in New Zealand. After nearly 100 peer-reviewed papers exploring how nature copes with change, I realised too much of that knowledge was locked away in journals. I wanted it to matter beyond academia — to help people make better decisions for our shared future. In this newsletter, I’ve written about how ecosystems respond to climate change, solutions for biodiversity loss, innovations in water management, and the connections between science, policy, and society. I connect cutting-edge science with the decisions that shape our shared future. These have included deep dives, paper summaries of my own lab’s or others’ research, perspectives, and experimental ideas. I also spend a fair amount of time writing personal reflections as a scientist and father living in these times. You can read more about me here.
Alongside these essays, I also write Nexus Notes — a twice-monthly series for paid subscribers where I share the ideas, articles, and threads that are shaping my thinking, connected to the bigger picture of climate, biodiversity, and water. It’s part reading list, part reflection — designed to spark curiosity and help us think differently about the challenges ahead.
If you’re new here, these are the posts readers have loved most — a great place to start exploring. Subscribe free to get future posts (and see below for how to access the full experience).
Personal reflections
Why intergenerational justice demands we think long-term
Good things take time, but do we have it?
Solve one problem, then the next, then the next...
Finding lightness when the work feels heavy
Syntheses and perspectives
Biodiversity is changing all the time, but not necessarily in headline catching ways
Nature-based solutions are more than just climate fixes
Non-forest carbon-rich ecosystems need to be conserved and restored for biodiversity and climate benefits
Four ideas for river management in a rapidly changing world
Explainers
Why we can't wait for perfect information to save the world
A statistical property that undermines ecosystem management under climate change
Why it’s so important to prioritise diversity in all its forms for resilient ecosystems
Highlighting the major negative consequences of poorly-planned planting programmes
For academics and/or early-career researchers
Thirty three reflections I wish someone had shared with me early in my research career
A brief guide to the various forms of disciplinarity: intra-, cross-, multi-, inter- and transdisciplinarity.
An overview of horizon scanning with a particular focus on climate change, biodiversity and conservation
Summaries of papers from the Tonkin Lab
A summary of our paper published in Science, May 2025
Giving rivers room to move: how rethinking flood management can benefit people and nature
Accelerating environmental challenges requires a strategic vision for synthesis in ecology and environmental science
Summaries of papers from others
The extinction of experience due to climate change and what we can do about it
Extinctions will accelerate rapidly if global temperatures continue to rise
Optimising carbon sequestration, biodiversity and social benefits isn't as simple as just planting trees, but there are rules to maximise these benefits
Slightly more poetic
To everything, there is a season: an ode to seasonality
Experimental ideas
Perhaps an ancient practice from Stoic philosophy might come in handy
Want more?
If you’re curious about Nexus Notes or want to go deeper, here’s what paid subscribers get in addition to the free posts:
Access to Nexus Notes (twice a month) — curated ideas, articles, and reflections I’m exploring
Bonus posts and deep dives beyond the free essays
Exclusive Q&As and discussions with me and the community
First look at new research from my lab
The ability to start new threads in subscriber chat
The knowledge that your support makes this work sustainable
☕ For the cost of a coffee a month, you help build a better-informed response to the biodiversity–climate crisis, and you help to keep this work going.
Premium subscribers get deeper dives and to see behind the scenes, such as 👇
A deep dive on the ecological consequences of seasonality change
And here’s what some of our paid community are saying
We’ve also got an active chat
Hope to see you soon!
Jono
PS: I’m also over on Bluesky and LinkedIn if you want to connect there too.
Hi Jonathan. This is why I decided to leave academia and start working as a freelance consultant and writer. As an environmental scientist, I can certainly relate with what you wrote in this piece and thanks for writing here on Substack. I really enjoyed your content!