2025 was a wild ride
Some reflections on the crazy year that was. Predirections in 2025.
Before I get stuck in, I’d love for you to vote on your favourite post from 2025. Here are five I’ve pulled out to choose from.
Short-term thinking is killing the planet
The paradox of patient urgency
Change is afoot, but not always how you expect
The surprising similarity between rivers and trees
Hi folks,
2025 was a massive year for Predirections! It was my first full calendar year writing regularly (I started in March 20241), and it was a wild ride. It was a year of learning — about this platform, about writing in public, and about what I want this newsletter to be.
Early in the year, a few notes I shared travelled much further than I ever expected. For a brief period, Predirections grew very quickly — peaking at over 19,000 subscribers. Since then, things have settled back down again. That experience was exciting, humbling, and clarifying all at once. It made me realise that growth, by itself, isn’t the goal — resonance is.
Most people who arrived during that surge stuck around, and I’m very glad you did. Others realised this wasn’t quite what they were looking for, which is totally fine. What matters most to me is writing for readers who are curious and passionate about ecology, biodiversity, climate change, freshwater systems, and how all of these things connect together in a world that’s changing at pace. If you’re still here, you’re exactly who I’m writing for.
This year also pushed me to think hard about access, value, and sustainability. I’ve experimented with different formats, series, and ways of supporting the work — sometimes awkwardly. I’m still figuring that part out, but one thing became clear: I want the core of Predirections to remain open and freely available.
Right, enough scene-setting. Here’s a look back at the posts that shaped Predirections in 2025.
Most popular posts of 2025
Most read: What I wish I knew: 33 thoughts for early career researchers
I’m writing here largely to reach outside of academia. But I’m happy that my reflections for early-career researchers were well received. I really enjoyed putting these thoughts together. This post was shared much more widely than any of my other posts outside of Substack. It probably reflects that most of my connections on LinkedIn and Bluesky are fellow academics.
If you’re keen to connect there, here are my accounts: LinkedIn, Bluesky. If you want to follow a bunch of freshwater scientists on Bluesky, I made a starter pack here.
Most discussed: Short-term thinking is killing the planet
I loved writing this one. Short and to the point — a discussion opener. Let’s think of the long-term consequences of our actions! More of these this year.
Most informative: Change is afoot, but not always how you expect
This one about the nuances of biodiversity change was well received, and came easily given the topic is well within my wheelhouse. It’s cool to see people are interested in nuance as I’m increasingly concerned to see some of the most popular posts on Substack are one-sided hot takes.
Most appreciated: Don’t forget non-forest carbon-rich ecosystems!
My first post of 2025, before the rapid growth phase, was well appreciated given the smaller subscriber base at the time. We tend to think of trees as being the only things that suck up a lot of carbon, but other ecosystems can too. This was a bit of a deep dive into those other ecosystems.
Favourite comment section: The paradox of patient urgency
This post was full of tensions between short-term and long-term actions. I have no answers here, only questions. Big things take time but we need urgent action. It’s a real paradox.
On finding joy amongst doom: Joy, despite everything
We need to tackle hard things. We need to face the threats head on. But we need to do it in a way that looks after ourselves. This post is me reflecting on finding joy while working in a field that sees species going extinct, forests flattened, and rivers polluted on the daily.
Setting the record straight: The many faces of invasive species impacts
Despite what you read, invasive species are massively problematic. Enough said.
A lesson we all need: Bird by bird, step by step, problem by problem
Incremental changes compound over time. Simple as that. This is a lesson for scaling massive ecological or climate changes right through to small changes in our own lives.
An ode to seasonality: The rhythms of life
A more poetic attempt at explaining things. Emphasising the importance of seasonal rhythms and the risks of them changing.
Pulled straight from my lectures: The surprising similarity between rivers and trees
Another one right in my wheelhouse. All the content I shared in this post was taken directly from a lecture I give on “riverscapes”.
A quick note on support
If you’ve been reading Predirections this year and found value in it, one of the simplest ways to support the work is with a paid subscription. It helps keep the core writing open, gives this newsletter a bit more visibility on Substack, and makes it easier for me to keep investing time in it.
I’ve reopened a 20% discount on the annual plan and reduced the monthly price for now while I work toward a small supporter milestone. There’s absolutely no pressure — but if you’ve ever thought about upgrading, this is a good moment to do it.
A book on the horizon
One of the more exciting things to come out of writing here has been a potential new book project. I was approached by an editor at a reputable publishing company who reads my Substack to write a book last year. Over the past few months, I’ve been putting ideas together for a proposal. I won’t reveal too much right now as nothing is set in stone and it’s very early days, but I’ll keep you posted as things progress.
Lab updates
Well, it was an intense end to the year, with three PhD students handing in within a month of each other. That’s four students this year — my first cohort of PhDs. It’s a surreal feeling to be transitioning from a big lab (17 members at one point) to a small one in 2026. This was an active choice I made to re-find some time for myself for a period, including to write the book I mention above.
2025 was a slower year in terms of peer-reviewed publication outputs for me, but I’m simply not interested in the productivity game anymore. And the thing I noticed was every paper this year bar one was led by students in my own research group, which is very rewarding. (For those interested, my peer-reviewed publications for 2025 can be found at the bottom of the post2 — if you want the pdf, check out my website.) I have a lot of collaborative irons in the fire right now so stay tuned for a busy year of outputs — some of which I’ll share here.
In other updates, as you know, I made full professor recently. What that means is effectively more of the same — continuing to wear an ever-expanding collection of hats but with more expectation of taking on leadership roles both within and outside of the university. One exciting development is that some of us who made full professor will be giving public professorial talks. I’ll be sure to let you know when this is if you happen to be reading from NZ.
Moving forward
I won’t say too much here as I recently wrote about where Predirections is heading next. I’m keen to continue to build the community here as we enter into another exciting year of unknowns. And don’t forget, we have our own chatroom on Substack for more informal discussions.
Thanks for reading! Here’s to another year of finding joy and doing good things.
Jono
PS: What’s your theme for 2026? Mine, once again, is simplify as I failed to achieve that last year.
2025 outputs:
Carneiro, L., B. Leroy, C. Capinha, C. J. A. Bradshaw, S. Bertolino, J. A. Catford, M. Camacho-Cervantes, J. Bojko, G. Klippel, S. Kumschick, D. Pincheira-Donoso, J. D. Tonkin, B. D. Fath, J. South, E. Manfrini, T. Dallas, and F. Courchamp. 2025. Typology of the ecological impacts of biological invasions. Trends in Ecology & Evolution 40:563–574.
Gillis, A. J., M. S. Thomsen, and J. D. Tonkin. 2025. Keystone predation: what is it, and is it supported by empirical evidence? Ecology and Evolution 15:e72488.
Harris, H. A. L., T. Murray, J. D. Tonkin, and A. R. McIntosh. 2025. Braided rivers as a case for landscape-scale management. New Zealand Journal of Ecology 49:3608.
Hernández-Carrasco, D., J. M. Tylianakis, D. A. Lytle, and J. D. Tonkin. 2025. Ecological and evolutionary consequences of changing seasonality. Science 388:eads4880.
Hore, O. R., J. D. Tonkin, N. C. Boddy, and A. R. McIntosh. 2025. Flow matters: unravelling the interactive influences of flow variation and non‐native trout on vulnerable galaxiids. River Research and Applications 41:1131–1142.
Koerich, G., H. R. Lai, C. K. Lee, F. J. Morgan, and J. D. Tonkin. 2025. Proximity to seabird colonies and water availability shape moss distributions in Antarctica. Ecography e08166.
McCabe, C. L., C. D. Matthaei, and J. D. Tonkin. 2025. The ecological benefits of more room for rivers. Nature Water 3:260–270.
2025 ended on a high with your professorship and I am pleased to hear that you aren't just interested in the productivity game! Looking back on all your posts there was a varied and really interesting bunch of reading. I have learnt so much. My favourite though would have to be the post on Similarity between Rivers and Trees. Your description of rivers being 'living networks that connect land, air, and underground worlds...when we break these connections, we don't just lose species. We lose resilience'. This says it all for me. The public definitely needs to know more of this stuff so keep writing.
Great work this past year, Jono!