Where Predirections is heading next
Some reflections on the directions this newsletter is taking and a special upgrade offer
Hi all,
Taking a month away from this space did something important: it gave me the distance to ask what Predirections is really for — and what it needs to become if it’s going to stay useful in a world changing as fast as ours.
I came here to write publicly in my attempt to make a difference. As I wrote in my welcome post:
After nearly 100 peer-reviewed papers exploring how nature copes with change, I realised too much of that knowledge was locked away in journals. I wanted it to matter beyond academia — to help people make better decisions for our shared future.
Looking back through recent posts, it’s clear that I have an audience that cares — about the environment, about intergenerational justice, and about the intricacies of how the world works — but also about celebrating wins.
I’ve come to the realisation that this is a space to share, to teach, to experiment with ideas, but mostly, to do it together — as a community. I’ve brought you a deeper understanding of how ecological change actually unfolds: in networks, across seasons, via tradeoffs. You’ve brought me a space to do that. You’ve shown me that my words aren’t just relevant for other academics or policymakers — they help you learn to understand the world too. And you even helped me reach full professor! So thank you.
I’ve shared deep dives into how seasons are changing and how that is consequential for all life on earth, how biodiversity change is more than just a reduction in the number of species, and how rivers march to the beat of their own drum and are like trees in many ways. And I’ve also shared the ideas I’m pondering, the content I’m browsing, and news from my lab via the Nexus Notes series.
That is the work I want to double down on.
Over the next year, Predirections will focus even more tightly on the biodiversity–climate nexus and the levers we have at hand to make positive change happen. I’ll continue to lean on freshwater systems — not only because that’s my main area of expertise, but also because they’re where signals of global change often show up first. More clarity about what’s really happening, what’s possible, and what’s at risk if we get it wrong.
That means leaning harder into:
evidence‑grounded analysis
real case studies
trade‑offs, uncertainty, and uncomfortable truths
forward‑looking thinking in a world where historical baselines are increasingly irrelevant
These posts don’t typically lend themselves to click-bait titles. These are reasoned ideas, not divisive takes engineered to spark outrage. Sure, I’d grow faster if I chose to chase outrage and cheap dopamine hits — there’s no shortage of folks who do — but that’s not why I write, and I’m sure that’s not why you read.
So here’s what’s changing.
First, Nexus Notes will be free again. I’ve long been uneasy with these being behind a paywall. I want them free and easy to share for anyone curious about biodiversity, climate, and water — and in the coming days, I’ll go back and reopen these posts for all to access.
Beyond Nexus notes, this kind of work takes time — not just to write, but to think through properly. It means reading deeply, connecting dots that don’t obviously connect, and resisting the pressure to chase headlines or churn out content just to keep an algorithm happy.
Paid subscriptions support that slower, deeper work. From time to time, paid readers will get small bonus pieces — short research breakdowns, focused explainers, more intimate thinking, or early drafts of ideas I’m still working through. And I’ll continue to experiment with different ideas, including ways to build community.
Regardless, the core content will remain free — in fact, more of it will be free than before. I’m returning to a supporter model: paid subscriptions help sustain the work, rather than restrict access to it.
If this newsletter helps you think more clearly about environmental change — or gives you language for things you already sense but haven’t quite been able to articulate — then a paid subscription is the simplest way to support that work.
For the next week, I’m offering a small supporter discount as a thank you to anyone who wants to help sustain this work as I reset the direction of Predirections.
If paying isn’t an option, you’re still very welcome here. Read, share, and take part in the conversation.
Jono
Hi Jonathan, many thanks for your thoughtful explanation of your plans and hopes for the future of your Substack. As a retired academic, I appreciate the challenge of writing outside the familiar structures of academia, where the pressure to publish, secure grants, and sustain the research that underpins both scholarship and teaching shapes so much of our work. Preparing material that is genuinely research informed is demanding enough; doing so in a way that remains accessible to a broad readership is another task entirely. It is certainly not a matter of simply sitting down and producing a few paragraphs. To write meaningfully for a wide audience, to make complex ideas understandable, and to encourage readers to explore these topics more deeply requires a considerable amount of effort. Substack is full of self‑described “nature writers,” many of varying quality, and too often their work offers only a superficial engagement with substantial issues. Few take the time, or have the training, to mine, interpret, and communicate research with any real depth.
Your own writing on Substack, which I have greatly enjoyed, stands in refreshing contrast. You lay out, describe, and explain serious research in a way that is both accessible and genuinely illuminating. It is, Professor, something to be proud of, and I very much hope you will be able to continue it. Warm regards, P
Thank you so much for this. It’s a real service to us that you share your hard-won knowledge so generously, especially at a time when universities are sliding ever deeper into crisis and other forms of adult education are increasingly hard to come by.