Both sides of climate change, part 1: emerging opportunities
Results from a horizon scan of threats and opportunities from climate change to New Zealand
Climate change is here and it's bringing widespread havoc. Threats are continuing to grow as climate change worsens. We are likely to experience more dry dries, more wet wets, hotter and longer heatwaves, more intense hurricanes, sea-level rise, and so on. It's pretty bleak.
That's why we need to take action now to minimise the damage.
But to take effective action, we need to know what's on the horizon first. Without information, we're flying blind into the future.
There are many tools for envisioning the future. I've already talked about ecological forecasts, but one tool that's widespread in ecology and conservation biology is horizon scanning. This is an approach used to identify potential emerging threats.
I won't go into detail about how horizon scanning works here (that will come in two posts time). The basic premise is that we know the obvious things that are on the way with climate change like those I've identified above, but we may be overlooking less the obvious or emerging threats that aren't in the public discourse and that receive less research attention. Horizon scanning is used to look for and uncover such threats and opportunities.
A couple of years ago, I was involved in a fun project that used horizon scanning to look for potential emerging threats and opportunities from climate change particular to Aotearoa New Zealand (hereafter NZ)1. The resulting paper identified ten threats and ten opportunities that are both novel and of importance to NZ.
Opportunities? Really? Yep, climate change doesn't just bring threats — there are bound to be some opportunities too.
Now, this isn't to say we should embrace climate change because there are opportunities to be had. On the contrary, we need to do everything in our power to minimise its impact. But, we should also be aware of both sides of the story — it's important to have a balanced perspective.
We were a very multidisciplinary team. So, these weren't solely ecological threats and opportunities that we identified. Threats included social issues, complex feedbacks and increasing extreme events. Two major themes emerged in terms of opportunities: economic reorganisation and cultural change.
Yes, this post is specific to New Zealand, so will be of particular interest to New Zealanders, but the lessons are general. I'm confident there will be something in here for everyone.
In this post, I focus on the ten opportunities we uncovered. The next post will be focused on the ten threats. And the post after that will give more detail on how horizon scanning works and why it's useful.
Climate change opportunities
Economic reorganisation
Opportunity 1: Benefits from deploying technological solutions.
NZ has the potential to leverage its tech sector for global climate solutions, such as renewable energy advancements and innovative digital products. Given the small size of NZ, small global market shares can represent a major chunk of the economy. Thus, this could transform our economy while reducing emissions at home and abroad.
Opportunity 2: Improved financial reporting of climate related risk drives transparency and transitions.
One of the key risks of climate change is financial damages. NZ has been a leader in moving towards mandatory reporting aligned with the Taskforce for Climate-Related Financial Disclosures (TCFD). Developing and improving estimates of such risks can help to understand efficient ways to mitigate the worst effects of climate change. And this transparency helps businesses and governments better prepare for economic shifts linked to climate change.
Opportunity 3: Responses to climate enable shifts to more sustainable food production.
It is well known that some agricultural practices are more damaging than others for our environment. NZ's economy is heavily reliant on high-methane agriculture (dairy). Climate change may force a rethink of how we use our land. As the populous grows more environmentally aware and concerned about climate risks, these growing concerns are already shifting demand for more sustainable food options, which will be reflected in how we use our land. These shifts not only improve environmental outcomes but also respond to growing global demand for sustainable food products.
Opportunity 4: Adopting sustainable practices by re-thinking agricultural identity.
NZ's identity is wrapped up in its colonial history. Our landscape is covered in farms that have been drained of wetlands and cleared of forests. Demand for more climate friendly and sustainable agricultural products has the potential to lead to a reimagining of our food landscapes, including incorporating indigenous practices. A cultural transition away from industrial, high-emission farming towards environmentally conscious agriculture offers opportunities for sustainable economic growth
Opportunity 5: Redesigning farming to value shift to carbon/biodiversity.
With the right incentives in place (e.g. financial incentives for carbon sequestration and/or biodiversity) forests can produce similar financial returns as dairy farming. However, as you know from my other posts, we shouldn't be planting monocultures in such cases. We should prioritise diverse and resilient native forests.
Change in perspective
Opportunity 6: Climate change re-emphasises the perspectives of future generations.
Climate change brings the future to the present and therefore presents opportunities to re-think our relationship with future generations. Māori philosophies that focus on the wellbeing of future generations offer a powerful framework for long-term, sustainable climate policies. Intergenerational planning can strengthen resilience, but communities need to be empowered to do so.
"Māori and other Indigenous philosophies redirect our thinking in important ways. In particular, they understand future generations not as passive recipients of the decisions made and actions taken today, but rather as both custodians and agents of change and transformation toward the future we hope will one day materialise. Future generations are, thus, important now."
Opportunity 7: Broader theories of knowledge that incorporate Māori perspectives.
As I've belaboured ad nauseam, climate change solutions need to be interdisciplinary and transdisciplinary, combining knowledge from across multiple disciplines, cultures, and identities, while being grounded in societal needs. Contemporary science tends to like to compartmentalise the world. By contrast, "Māori philosophy offers a holistic and interconnected relationship with nature and its resources which spans from the beginning of time to the imaginable future." Seeking a natural balance is a key underpinning of Māori philosophy. Incorporating indigenous knowledge is, therefore, fundamental but we continue to overlook it both in NZ and elsewhere. Thus, the urgent need to find solutions to climate change (and biodiversity loss) present a clear opportunity to embed indigenous knowledge and practices into policy frameworks for ecological and cultural resilience.
Opportunity 8: Awakening and mobilising a critical mass.
Climate change is a collective problem. Grassroots movements can drive large-scale behavioural change and influence policy. Building critical mass in environmental activism has the potential to further drive improved environmental policy and action.
Opportunity 9: Recognising soil’s diverse utilities and values.
Soil is a critical reservoir of carbon, nutrients and water, and is the foundation for healthy terrestrial ecosystems. Climate change brings to light the multiplicity of values of soil, including as one of the key carbon sinks globally. This recognition opens opportunities for restoration of soils and of ecosystems as a whole.
Opportunity 10: Inclusive perspectives for better food production.
Responding to climate change provides an opportunity to rethink how we produce food. Diverse knowledges and practices of farming are critical for resilience and for better social, ecological, and economic outcomes. Moreover, diversifying who participates in food production, including women, Māori, and other marginalised groups, fosters more ethical, sustainable, and resilient agricultural practices.
Summary
So there you have it. It turns out there are some opportunities to be had, but these pale in comparison to threats. Nevertheless, it's important to have both sides of the story so we can go into the future eyes open.
The opportunities that were uncovered really demonstrated how much more there is to do. As much as they were opportunities, they were also issues that need more attention.
One of the key findings from our paper was that "both opportunities and threats could be impeded by traditional disciplinary boundaries". This reflects much of my writing in this newsletter to date. As a traditionally trained ecologist, I'm increasingly valuing the importance of the various forms of crossdisciplinarity for tackling the big issues.
What do you think? I'd love to hear your thoughts. Should we look for positives in climate change too? Which opportunities stood out to you? Were any really unexpected? What weird and wonderful opportunities do you see?
Stay tuned for part two on threats followed by an explainer of what horizon scanning is and how we can use it to foresee threats and opportunities ahead of time.
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This paper emerged from a workshop led by Cate MacInnis-Ng and Will Godsoe funded by Te Pūnaha Matatini, a Centre of Research Excellence in New Zealand. Quotes in the text come from the paper.
The paper:
Macinnis-Ng, C., I. Ziedins, H. Ajmal, W. T. Baisden, S. Hendy, A. McDonald, R. Priestley, R. A. Salmon, E. L. Sharp, J. D. Tonkin, S. Velarde, K. Watene, and W. Godsoe. 2024. Climate change impacts on Aotearoa New Zealand: a horizon scan approach. Journal of the Royal Society of New Zealand 54:523–546.
imho, the missed aspect in climate debates is that it is more than anything a spiritual crisis.
A sense of disconnection from Nature - Nature as something separate from myself will always result in some degree of (unintentional) exploitation. I like the idea of using Maori perspectives in the post, as it steers the discussion into the right direction, however a focus only on future human generations, misses the point: We exploit nature because we are NOT nature, we are disconnected from it. Including unborn people forces us to think of nature in a different way, but we still will see it fundamentally as a resource to exploit - just exploit it "better", for the sake of more people.
Example: One would rarely exploit members of one's family or friend group, but also not fully refuse to participate in a global economy that exploits others, far away. Nature, in our hearts, is likely very far away.
The missed opportunity in my opinion is to learn to love nature not just by appreciating large expanses of greens on arduous hikes, but on a fundamental, spiritual level, as an expression of life, of god, of self.
This is an interesting perspective on what is often portrayed as a negative topic Jonathon. Thanks for raising.
I often argue that climate action is not just a moral and reputational discussion, it’s a competitive advantage.
Soon, decision makers will be made up mostly of a generation who spent their Friday afternoon’s campaigning for change.
They will look for tangible evidence to support you and your business’s committed to reducing carbon footprints. The inability to do so could result in a loss of market share.
We see a similar demand in the food & beverage industry regarding packaging and production standards. Or, from banking and finance on the protection and security of assets.
If learn to use the climate discussion as an advantage, we can both look to reverse the damage we’re doing, while maintaining a positive and attractive brand within our respective industries.