Like you say, we have all lived through "boom and bust" weather cycles with water. We just didn't have a "fancy" term for them. "Hydroclimate Whiplash" isn't bad and conveys clearly that this is NOT a "good thing".
I thought it was interesting that they looked at +3°C of warming. Particularly considering that +3°C over baseline is now acknowledged by ALL of the factions in Climate Science as "inevitable".
The Moderates think the Rate of Warming is around +0.25°C/decade and we will reach +3°C around 2080. UNLESS we reach "net zero". They THEORIZE that warming will basically stop at that point at whatever temperature we have climbed to.
Hansen puts the RoW at around +0.32°C/decade. He forecasts +3°C between 2065 and 2070.
I think the RoW is going to be around +0.4°C/decade. I am forecasting +2°C between 2030 and 2035 with +3°C happening between 2055 and 2065 depending on accelerating feedbacks.
EVERYONE in Climate Science thinks +3°C this century is going to happen.
From the looks of these Hydroclimate Whiplash forecasts it's going to be a VERY different planet. One that's much, MUCH hungrier.
From the paper:
"At the global scale, 60% of land area is projected to experience accelerated transitions between dry and wet periods under a high warming scenario."
"The magnitude of these changes depends on the metric, method and warming scenario, but there are suggestions of 2.5× increases in globally averaged subseasonal precipitation whiplash and 5× increases in interannual dry-to-wet events over global land areas compared with the historical period."
"Additionally, hydrologically intense years are further projected to triple in major global river basins even under moderate warming".
Thanks Richard. It's scary stuff isn't it!?! It's not going to be fun if things play out as they are predicted to. I'm hopeful we can minimise the damage, but we certainly won't be avoiding it, unfortunately.
Tonkin Taylor is collaborating closely with local and regional council hubs and industry Multi-Stakeholder Forums (MSFs) to profit from Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways (DAPP). The focus on Coastal Inundation seems to be a vehicle for what can be described as 'Disaster Capitalism'. Model Intercomparison Projects (MIPs), like the upcoming CMIP7 which is still 2-3 years from completion, are bolstering the data aggregates for IPCC AR6's Working Groups 1 and 2. This entire field appears to be advancing in lockstep with what some might call the folly of Deliberative Democracy. The so-called 'Open' and 'Citizen'-based civil society initiatives, employing Decision Making Under Deep Uncertainty (DMDU) strategies, are potentially sabotaging genuine civic engagement. This could be seen as class warfare disguised as environmental concern, with underlying motives of social control and the advancement of technology research and development (R&D), all while numerous poorly disclosed pilot programs are being rolled out.
Hydroclimate whiplash is such a perfect term. Your post is a nice expansion on this Axios article, which mentioned Swain and his research in regards to the LA fires: https://www.axios.com/2025/01/12/la-fires-climate-change-drought-extreme-weather
Thanks Amanda! It is, isn't it. And thanks for sharing this article.
Like you say, we have all lived through "boom and bust" weather cycles with water. We just didn't have a "fancy" term for them. "Hydroclimate Whiplash" isn't bad and conveys clearly that this is NOT a "good thing".
I thought it was interesting that they looked at +3°C of warming. Particularly considering that +3°C over baseline is now acknowledged by ALL of the factions in Climate Science as "inevitable".
The Moderates think the Rate of Warming is around +0.25°C/decade and we will reach +3°C around 2080. UNLESS we reach "net zero". They THEORIZE that warming will basically stop at that point at whatever temperature we have climbed to.
Hansen puts the RoW at around +0.32°C/decade. He forecasts +3°C between 2065 and 2070.
I think the RoW is going to be around +0.4°C/decade. I am forecasting +2°C between 2030 and 2035 with +3°C happening between 2055 and 2065 depending on accelerating feedbacks.
EVERYONE in Climate Science thinks +3°C this century is going to happen.
From the looks of these Hydroclimate Whiplash forecasts it's going to be a VERY different planet. One that's much, MUCH hungrier.
From the paper:
"At the global scale, 60% of land area is projected to experience accelerated transitions between dry and wet periods under a high warming scenario."
"The magnitude of these changes depends on the metric, method and warming scenario, but there are suggestions of 2.5× increases in globally averaged subseasonal precipitation whiplash and 5× increases in interannual dry-to-wet events over global land areas compared with the historical period."
"Additionally, hydrologically intense years are further projected to triple in major global river basins even under moderate warming".
Thanks Richard. It's scary stuff isn't it!?! It's not going to be fun if things play out as they are predicted to. I'm hopeful we can minimise the damage, but we certainly won't be avoiding it, unfortunately.
Tonkin Taylor is collaborating closely with local and regional council hubs and industry Multi-Stakeholder Forums (MSFs) to profit from Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways (DAPP). The focus on Coastal Inundation seems to be a vehicle for what can be described as 'Disaster Capitalism'. Model Intercomparison Projects (MIPs), like the upcoming CMIP7 which is still 2-3 years from completion, are bolstering the data aggregates for IPCC AR6's Working Groups 1 and 2. This entire field appears to be advancing in lockstep with what some might call the folly of Deliberative Democracy. The so-called 'Open' and 'Citizen'-based civil society initiatives, employing Decision Making Under Deep Uncertainty (DMDU) strategies, are potentially sabotaging genuine civic engagement. This could be seen as class warfare disguised as environmental concern, with underlying motives of social control and the advancement of technology research and development (R&D), all while numerous poorly disclosed pilot programs are being rolled out.