Both sides of climate change, part 2: emerging threats
Both sides of climate change, part 2: emerging threats
Results from a horizon scan of threats and opportunities from climate change to New Zealand
This is a three-part series highlighting the results from an interdisciplinary horizon scan of emerging threats and opportunities from climate change1 we did for New Zealand. This deviates from my normal content somewhat, so if you're new here, be sure to check out the archives. If you like the post, please share it with your friends and subscribe. You can also help others find it by hitting the heart button to “Like” the post.
Last week, I wrote about the results we uncovered from a horizon scan exploring the emerging threats and opportunities from climate change in Aotearoa New Zealand (NZ). I focused there on the emerging opportunities from climate change. Two major themes emerged in terms of opportunities: economic reorganisation and cultural change.
Specifically, these ten opportunities emerged:
Benefits from deploying technological solutions
Improved financial reporting of climate related risk drives transparency and transitions
Responses to climate enable shifts to more sustainable food production
Adopting sustainable practices by re-thinking agricultural identity
Redesigning farming to value shift to carbon/biodiversity
Climate change re-emphasises the perspectives of future generations
Broader theories of knowledge that incorporate Māori perspectives
Awakening and mobilising a critical mass
Recognising soil’s diverse utilities and values
Inclusive perspectives for better food production
As a recap, horizon scanning is an approach used to identify potential emerging threats and opportunities. The basic premise is that we know the obvious things that are on the way with climate change, but there are many more less obvious or emerging issues that could potentially arrive in coming decades that aren't in the public discourse. So, the key point of difference of horizon scanning is to look for and uncover things that are not widely known to date, nor are receiving much research attention.
Climate change will impact all facets of society: it is a complex, interconnected and multidisciplinary challenge. So we set took an interdisciplinary perspective to this horizon scan. The threats we identified, therefore, covered a wide range of areas, including social issues, complex feedbacks, and increasing extreme events.
Building on last week's post, I'm focusing here on the threats we uncovered. Next week's post will give more detail on how horizon scanning works and why it's useful.
As mentioned last week, this one is specific to NZ, so will be of particular interest to New Zealanders, but the lessons are for all. I'm confident there will be something in here for everyone.
So, here we go.
Threats
Threat 1. Siloed policy exacerbates other stressors
Disconnected climate policies across sectors can undermine each other, such as where climate mitigation and adaptation efforts collide. As I've discussed a lot in previous posts, planting large swathes of land in monocultures of pine for carbon sequestration is not the way to do things, particularly for biodiversity benefits. Yet, this is still the plan in many parts of NZ. Such singular approaches will have considerable social and economic impacts on local communities. These forests are also threatened by increased fire risk from climate change. And we've all seen how problematic the slash can be in eastern parts of NZ from forestry during storm events, which are predicted to intensify with climate change. A more integrated approach is crucial to balance environmental, social, and economic needs that avoids maladaptive land uses and social conflicts.
Extreme events
Threat 2. Black swan events impede our ability to anticipate the effects of climate change
Black swan events are unpredictable and improbable, have high impact, and are often justified after the fact. With increasing average temperatures comes increasing variability, including extreme events. These events can be extremely difficult to predict, but need to be prepared for because of their potential consequences. As I have outlined previously, from a flood-risk perspective, this might look like giving rivers more room to move on the landscape and generally living with rivers as opposed to combating them. But also, we need to focus on increasing our capacity to forecast such events, including their impact on ecosystems. Cyclone Gabrielle, which caused somewhere up to $14.5 billion dollars of damage, is a case in point. These rare, high-impact events have catastrophic social, economic and ecological impacts, which need to be prepared for.
Threat 3. Poor preparation for heatwaves
Heat extremes are more common than they used to be in NZ and are predicted to worsen with continued climate change. NZ is not fully equipped to handle the increased frequency and intensity of such events, particularly when combined with correlated drought conditions. Our terrestrial ecosystems are vulnerable to such events, as are all our ecosystems. However, our people are also vulnerable, with newly built apartments in Auckland designed for the elderly being found to be prone to overheating during warm periods. A more comprehensive heatwave response strategy is needed.
Threat 4. Multiple extreme events combine to have compounding effects
Combined extreme events can have compounding impacts for humans and ecosystems. This may be through multiple extremes of the same nature occurring in sequence, where, for instance, an extreme flood occurs during a recovery period from a previous extreme flood, impacting an already stressed ecosystem. Or the events may be of a different nature, such as where an extreme flood occurs following a large wildfire. Such events can have catastrophic impacts on the river ecosystem due to water quality impacts of post-fire runoff. A good example from NZ is the impacts of the Kaikoura earthquake on rocky intertidal ecosystems. This event led to the loss of 75% of the cover of southern bull kelp along the Canterbury coastline. The earthquake was then followed by a marine heatwave, which led to a further 35% decline in cover. Such overlapping events require coordinated, cross-sector responses.
Natural feedbacks become difficult to anticipate
Threat 5. Climate change amplifies disease outbreaks in humans and wildlife
Vector-borne diseases are set to increase under climate change. Warmer temperatures and altered ecosystems help to spread new and existing diseases. This threat is not just for humans, but also for our native biodiversity and our horticultural and agricultural species. There is currently a lack of action to prevent or reduce new arrivals. In NZ, existing health inequalities (e.g. for Māori) need to be addressed and must account for the arrival of new threats.
Threat 6. Losing track of the big sources, sinks and feedbacks of carbon on land and in the ocean as climate changes
We currently have a poor understanding of carbon cycle feedback mechanisms in soils, forests and marine ecosystems in NZ. We're effectively flying blind on carbon mitigation strategies as a result. One key source of uncertainty is erosion, which continues to be a major issue in NZ due to inappropriate land uses on steep hill country land. Erosion, as it happens, is a major source of carbon emissions for NZ, but is often not accounted for in models. Also, extreme droughts can result in major releases of carbon into the atmosphere both on land and in coastal marine habitats. As outlined earlier, such extremes are hard to predict, and therefore incorporating these mechanisms into models predicting carbon is challenging.
Social implications
Threat 7. Climate crises aggravate social inequality
Climate change will disproportionately impact vulnerable populations. This includes physical displacement within NZ, but also immigration from neighbouring Pacific Islands impacted by sea-level rise. Moreover, economic and housing disparities, and health inequalities will worsen. For instance, those living in lower grade housing are likely to be the most vulnerable to heatwaves. Places that are already suffering from socioeconomic and health inequalities within NZ are likely to be among those that are most vulnerable to such climate change impacts.
Threat 8. Eco-anxiety about climate change and other global crises exacerbates existing mental health crisis
"The pressure to take individual action while seeing societal inaction" can be a source of eco-anxiety. Mental health issues are predicted to worsen with increasing climate change, particularly associated with increasing extreme events. Such increases in mental health risk hit a system that is already in crisis in NZ, with globally poor statistics, particularly for our youth.
Threat 9. Global pandemics derail efforts to address excessive emissions
The COVID-19 pandemic disrupted global climate negotiations and slowed progress on emission reduction. Resources were diverted to the more immediate threat of the pandemic. Indeed, the pandemic reduced investment into clean energy technologies. New pandemics that arise with climate change threaten to derail continued efforts to fight climate change. Nonetheless, the pandemic provided insights into what factors worked to stimulate action. These insights can be applied to tackle climate change.
Threat 10. Aotearoa is seen as a strategic asset for our (relatively) liveable land
Climate change will potentially lead to food shortages globally and result in geopolitical unrest. With its favourable geography, low population density and relatively stable governance, NZ may attract migrants fleeing climate impacts globally. This has been identified as a major threat to our defence interests by the Ministry of Defence due to possible ‘violence from mismanaged adaptation or migration’ and ‘land disputes’.
Summary
As with anything associated with climate threats, this is pretty daunting stuff, I know. However, it's important to understand the diverse threats climate change poses in order to go eyes open into the future. And here, we've focused on some of the lesser known issues (both threats and opportunities). I fundamentally believe in the importance of such foresight approaches. We have to prepare for the worst case scenario.
Stay tuned for an explainer of what horizon scanning is and how we can use it to foresee threats and opportunities ahead of time.
If you’re a Substack writer and have been enjoying Predirections, consider adding it to your recommendations.
This paper emerged from a workshop led by Cate MacInnis-Ng and Will Godsoe funded by Te Pūnaha Matatini, a Centre of Research Excellence in New Zealand. Quotes in the text come from the paper.
The paper:
Macinnis-Ng, C., I. Ziedins, H. Ajmal, W. T. Baisden, S. Hendy, A. McDonald, R. Priestley, R. A. Salmon, E. L. Sharp, J. D. Tonkin, S. Velarde, K. Watene, and W. Godsoe. 2024. Climate change impacts on Aotearoa New Zealand: a horizon scan approach. Journal of the Royal Society of New Zealand 54:523–546.