Can’t begin to imagine the effort involved in bringing all that data together, Jonathan – such valuable work. And I love the nod to the Joy Division "Unknown Pleasures" album too! This line from the “Disorder” track is a good description of the work you’re doing: “I've been waiting for a guide to come and take me by the hand…”
The examples you listed about the impacts species in a river endure was scary, especially the long term recovery, if at all. These sorts of examples highlight the need for continuing study to predict outcomes and hopefully reduce the impacts on species in our rivers. Is it actually possible to make these predictions when there are so many compounding events happening?
It's very hard to make robust predictions, unfortunately. Extremes are rare events that have unusual impacts, so predictions of their impacts and the recovery of biodiversity from them will never be a very certain science. Compound events complicate that even further. But we can explore the potential outcomes of their impacts via a range of different approaches. This is the difference between scenario projections vs. forecasts. They sound similar but they have important differences. Forecasts: prediction of what is most likely to happen. Scenario projection: what-if scenario of possible futures.
Absolutely -- we need to know the possible outcomes. And modelling like this helps us understand the intricacies of how biodiversity responds. Importantly, it also helps us form and test hypotheses that can then be confronted with data.
Indeed, Kevin. Events are all interconnected in one way or another. It’s very hard to predict the outcomes as they depend on a whole suite of contingencies. But that’s what makes it rewarding to study.
Can’t begin to imagine the effort involved in bringing all that data together, Jonathan – such valuable work. And I love the nod to the Joy Division "Unknown Pleasures" album too! This line from the “Disorder” track is a good description of the work you’re doing: “I've been waiting for a guide to come and take me by the hand…”
Wow, Anne! Love that. Thanks. I’m glad to be of service.
We also increase extreme events by creating expanses of impervious surfaces. They increase rivers’ flashiness.
Indeed Paul! We do a lot to increase their flashiness.
The examples you listed about the impacts species in a river endure was scary, especially the long term recovery, if at all. These sorts of examples highlight the need for continuing study to predict outcomes and hopefully reduce the impacts on species in our rivers. Is it actually possible to make these predictions when there are so many compounding events happening?
It's very hard to make robust predictions, unfortunately. Extremes are rare events that have unusual impacts, so predictions of their impacts and the recovery of biodiversity from them will never be a very certain science. Compound events complicate that even further. But we can explore the potential outcomes of their impacts via a range of different approaches. This is the difference between scenario projections vs. forecasts. They sound similar but they have important differences. Forecasts: prediction of what is most likely to happen. Scenario projection: what-if scenario of possible futures.
Thanks for explaining Jono. Even if the predictions aren't a certain science we still need this work to be done.
Absolutely -- we need to know the possible outcomes. And modelling like this helps us understand the intricacies of how biodiversity responds. Importantly, it also helps us form and test hypotheses that can then be confronted with data.
Love this detailed framing, thank you! Contingency in action; one flood can echo long after it's gone.
Indeed, Kevin. Events are all interconnected in one way or another. It’s very hard to predict the outcomes as they depend on a whole suite of contingencies. But that’s what makes it rewarding to study.
Best album cover of all time! Love the inclusion of aquatic data into that classic look.
It’s awesome eh! Thanks Andrew. Love playing w flow data.
THANK YOU. We are the rivers and they are us.
My pleasure, Stephanie!