Let me chime in with some thoughts. We reviewed hundreds of studies in our paper. And what was clear is that they all change dramatically following extremes in some way or another. Some recover, some don't. But what we mean by recovery is a very blurry thing. Is it a return to what it looked like, to the species that were in it, to the functions it performed, to the food it provided? It could be any of those. Or is it to a system that self governs? They all mean different things. But one thing is clear to me -- they will inevitably face an increasing frequency of extremes as the future unfolds, so we need to think about ways that we can help sustain the functions we want to see maintained. Ideally, that would just be as natural state as possible, but it depends on the system and how dependent humans have become on it. Lots to think about here. More in next Monday's post about some potential levers up our sleeve.
This sentence in the Stott et al. paper calling for a global climate risk assessment mentioned in Signal 4 caught my eye:
“Policymakers might be aware that more people will die in heatwaves in a hotter climate, yet be unprepared for mass casualties if tens of thousands in one region were to die in conditions exceeding the limits of human tolerance.”
It reminded me of the opening section in Kim Stanley Robinson’s 2020 novel “The Ministry For The Future”, where he imagines a catastrophic climate change-related heat event taking place in India, the magnitude of which finally spurs nations to take serious action on climate change. While that section is distressing to read, the book is ultimately an uplifting one, especially since all the technology, geopolitical and financial-economic ideas and actions that are implemented in the book are already feasible / happening somewhere in the world right now. It is also very interesting on the potential leadership role it envisages for China. https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/50998056-the-ministry-for-the-future
I thought the same thing, Anne! I'm part way through Ministry of the Future and the opening section hit hard. It really does capture your imagination. I was actually listening to Jesse Damiani's recent podcast on geoengineering just yesterday and they give some interesting insights about what climate fiction works and what doesn't. Worth having a listen. For me, I've really enjoyed Ministry of the Future so far, but I can imagine it can be overwhelming for some. Would you agree? https://www.realitystudies.co/p/wim-carton-geoengineering-andreas-malm-most-dangerous-technology-the-world
I agree about the possible overwhelm, Jonathan – I nearly gave up on the book but am glad I persevered and I now think that first section was necessary in order to make the subsequent commitment action more believable. For me, any climate / environment-related fiction needs to contain some positive elements and offer me the prospect of some way forward. For example, I know a lot of people really enjoyed Eleanor Catton’s “Birnam Wood” but I was quite sickened by the ending and felt it left me nowhere to go. Others might argue that she was only being realistic but I just don’t have the stomach for solely dystopian stories any more. I’m with the likes of Rob Hopkins, Solitaire Townsend and others who provide inspiration for creating more thriving futures – as I wrote about on LinkedIn during the week: https://www.linkedin.com/posts/anne-pender-75b4916b_hope-utopias-brightfuturism-activity-7434217646176280576-I24K?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop&rcm=ACoAAA7Xw_cBR68XjLfcuUXF3t-kyB0HDAH57Dc
Thanks also for the heads-up on the Jesse Damiani podcasts too - I’ve been a bit of an Andreas Malm fangirl since the film adaptation of his book “How To Blow Up A Pipeline”!! Once an activist, always an activist, it seems, even though I should probably know better at this stage in my life…
Thanks for sharing, Anne! Got me right away with this "We need not stumble into the future." Yes! We're still doing way too much stumbling though.
Lots of great recommendations there -- will dig in, thanks. I've not read any climate fiction until Ministry, so it's new to me, but I'm enjoying it. I guess I didn't read it before as I feel like I read about it all the time via academic papers, but I'm learning good sci-fi, and now cli-fi, can be amazing. I was never really a sci-fi person until recently, but have grown to enjoy it. I love seeing people's imagination run wild.
No -- keep being active -- we all need to be activists in the modern world!
Thanks, Jonathan! Another book I recommend to my students is “Ecotopia” by Ernest Callenbach. Written in the 1970s, it imagines that California has decided to secede from the rest of the United States and turn itself into a self-sufficient and sustainable society. While it is dated in places, I love it for the wide vision and deep detail it provides on what such a society might look like. Apparently, it also inspired the founders of the Green political movement in Europe…
Love it! Definitely putting that right on the list. It's amazing that this idea continues to be so popular today -- in that the situation over there continues to make it sound not so far fetched!
Let me chime in with some thoughts. We reviewed hundreds of studies in our paper. And what was clear is that they all change dramatically following extremes in some way or another. Some recover, some don't. But what we mean by recovery is a very blurry thing. Is it a return to what it looked like, to the species that were in it, to the functions it performed, to the food it provided? It could be any of those. Or is it to a system that self governs? They all mean different things. But one thing is clear to me -- they will inevitably face an increasing frequency of extremes as the future unfolds, so we need to think about ways that we can help sustain the functions we want to see maintained. Ideally, that would just be as natural state as possible, but it depends on the system and how dependent humans have become on it. Lots to think about here. More in next Monday's post about some potential levers up our sleeve.
This sentence in the Stott et al. paper calling for a global climate risk assessment mentioned in Signal 4 caught my eye:
“Policymakers might be aware that more people will die in heatwaves in a hotter climate, yet be unprepared for mass casualties if tens of thousands in one region were to die in conditions exceeding the limits of human tolerance.”
It reminded me of the opening section in Kim Stanley Robinson’s 2020 novel “The Ministry For The Future”, where he imagines a catastrophic climate change-related heat event taking place in India, the magnitude of which finally spurs nations to take serious action on climate change. While that section is distressing to read, the book is ultimately an uplifting one, especially since all the technology, geopolitical and financial-economic ideas and actions that are implemented in the book are already feasible / happening somewhere in the world right now. It is also very interesting on the potential leadership role it envisages for China. https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/50998056-the-ministry-for-the-future
I thought the same thing, Anne! I'm part way through Ministry of the Future and the opening section hit hard. It really does capture your imagination. I was actually listening to Jesse Damiani's recent podcast on geoengineering just yesterday and they give some interesting insights about what climate fiction works and what doesn't. Worth having a listen. For me, I've really enjoyed Ministry of the Future so far, but I can imagine it can be overwhelming for some. Would you agree? https://www.realitystudies.co/p/wim-carton-geoengineering-andreas-malm-most-dangerous-technology-the-world
I agree about the possible overwhelm, Jonathan – I nearly gave up on the book but am glad I persevered and I now think that first section was necessary in order to make the subsequent commitment action more believable. For me, any climate / environment-related fiction needs to contain some positive elements and offer me the prospect of some way forward. For example, I know a lot of people really enjoyed Eleanor Catton’s “Birnam Wood” but I was quite sickened by the ending and felt it left me nowhere to go. Others might argue that she was only being realistic but I just don’t have the stomach for solely dystopian stories any more. I’m with the likes of Rob Hopkins, Solitaire Townsend and others who provide inspiration for creating more thriving futures – as I wrote about on LinkedIn during the week: https://www.linkedin.com/posts/anne-pender-75b4916b_hope-utopias-brightfuturism-activity-7434217646176280576-I24K?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop&rcm=ACoAAA7Xw_cBR68XjLfcuUXF3t-kyB0HDAH57Dc
Thanks also for the heads-up on the Jesse Damiani podcasts too - I’ve been a bit of an Andreas Malm fangirl since the film adaptation of his book “How To Blow Up A Pipeline”!! Once an activist, always an activist, it seems, even though I should probably know better at this stage in my life…
Thanks for sharing, Anne! Got me right away with this "We need not stumble into the future." Yes! We're still doing way too much stumbling though.
Lots of great recommendations there -- will dig in, thanks. I've not read any climate fiction until Ministry, so it's new to me, but I'm enjoying it. I guess I didn't read it before as I feel like I read about it all the time via academic papers, but I'm learning good sci-fi, and now cli-fi, can be amazing. I was never really a sci-fi person until recently, but have grown to enjoy it. I love seeing people's imagination run wild.
No -- keep being active -- we all need to be activists in the modern world!
Thanks, Jonathan! Another book I recommend to my students is “Ecotopia” by Ernest Callenbach. Written in the 1970s, it imagines that California has decided to secede from the rest of the United States and turn itself into a self-sufficient and sustainable society. While it is dated in places, I love it for the wide vision and deep detail it provides on what such a society might look like. Apparently, it also inspired the founders of the Green political movement in Europe…
https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/550165.Ecotopia
Love it! Definitely putting that right on the list. It's amazing that this idea continues to be so popular today -- in that the situation over there continues to make it sound not so far fetched!