To write a worthwhile reply to this excellent post would take some hours of backfilling research. So lacking time, here is a sketchy forecast of what a forecasting commentary woukd look like. Mention of actual world vs possible worlds, predictive vs descriptive. Factoring in distortions in modeling from statistical outlier events. Isolating major drivers then looking at "pre-drivers," understanding plasticity better...much better. And so forth.
I came across an interesting bit recently about the dangers of aluminum particulate related to rockets when they re-enter the atsmophere at termination of service and how this impacts the ozone, which is linked to climate. I haven't heard people talking about this though, have you? Additionally, I feel so often a western, reductionist approach is taken that is actually harmful to ecologies - like spraying harmful chemicals to reduce invasive species. This article totally changed how I view ecological steweardship and it important it is to return control of lands to Indigenous Peoples. I think Yosemite would be a great place to start. Blessings to you and to all our ecosystems! We also need to consider the military as it is a primary polluter and demander of ecosystems. Saying no to war is a yes to Mama Earth! How would a choice to withdraw support for military action impact projections, I wonder? May all live in harmony and peace!
Thanks for your thoughts! Colonisation has certainly done so much harm. We’d do well to return to indigenous practices. Capitalism and the free market economy makes it hard to make progress in sustainability and environmental protection.
Hey Jonathan, this is a very informative and helpful piece. It’s great to know that new models are continuing to be created and advanced. The more models that help us make ecological forecasts and climate forecasts is crucial. However, one question I have is how effective can wind and solar energy be in correcting the issue of climate change. I’ve read a couple of scientific paper that said solar and wind energy are inefficient while nuclear energy is the way to go (even though we haven’t particularly solved the waste issue). What are your thoughts on this? Thank you so much for posting this! Your newsletter is awesome by the way! Just subscribed! :)
Thanks Khadejah! Glad you enjoyed it, and thanks so much for subscribing!
Good question! The way I look at it, solar and wind are useful tools in the toolbox, but we need to be throwing everything at it. Nuclear is part of the equation, being much more efficient at creating energy. But there are still concerns over safety. However, modern nuclear is much, much safer than older plants. To me, we need to be trying everything, but we also need to focus on reducing consumption.
Thank you so much Jonathan! This is a great point! I think trying a mix of everything right now is a great way to figure out what is more efficient in the long run! :)
To write a worthwhile reply to this excellent post would take some hours of backfilling research. So lacking time, here is a sketchy forecast of what a forecasting commentary woukd look like. Mention of actual world vs possible worlds, predictive vs descriptive. Factoring in distortions in modeling from statistical outlier events. Isolating major drivers then looking at "pre-drivers," understanding plasticity better...much better. And so forth.
All great points. Thanks Michael!
I came across an interesting bit recently about the dangers of aluminum particulate related to rockets when they re-enter the atsmophere at termination of service and how this impacts the ozone, which is linked to climate. I haven't heard people talking about this though, have you? Additionally, I feel so often a western, reductionist approach is taken that is actually harmful to ecologies - like spraying harmful chemicals to reduce invasive species. This article totally changed how I view ecological steweardship and it important it is to return control of lands to Indigenous Peoples. I think Yosemite would be a great place to start. Blessings to you and to all our ecosystems! We also need to consider the military as it is a primary polluter and demander of ecosystems. Saying no to war is a yes to Mama Earth! How would a choice to withdraw support for military action impact projections, I wonder? May all live in harmony and peace!
https://www.scientificamerican.com/blog/primate-diaries/how-john-muir-s-brand-of-conservation-led-to-the-decline-of-yosemite/
Blessings!
Thanks for your thoughts! Colonisation has certainly done so much harm. We’d do well to return to indigenous practices. Capitalism and the free market economy makes it hard to make progress in sustainability and environmental protection.
Hey Jonathan, this is a very informative and helpful piece. It’s great to know that new models are continuing to be created and advanced. The more models that help us make ecological forecasts and climate forecasts is crucial. However, one question I have is how effective can wind and solar energy be in correcting the issue of climate change. I’ve read a couple of scientific paper that said solar and wind energy are inefficient while nuclear energy is the way to go (even though we haven’t particularly solved the waste issue). What are your thoughts on this? Thank you so much for posting this! Your newsletter is awesome by the way! Just subscribed! :)
Thanks Khadejah! Glad you enjoyed it, and thanks so much for subscribing!
Good question! The way I look at it, solar and wind are useful tools in the toolbox, but we need to be throwing everything at it. Nuclear is part of the equation, being much more efficient at creating energy. But there are still concerns over safety. However, modern nuclear is much, much safer than older plants. To me, we need to be trying everything, but we also need to focus on reducing consumption.
Thank you so much Jonathan! This is a great point! I think trying a mix of everything right now is a great way to figure out what is more efficient in the long run! :)