The 'grandchildren test' is such a clean filter for cutting through noise. I've seen teams use similar long-horizon thinking in infrastructure planning, where decisions had to account for 50+ year lifecycles, and it completely changed what got prioritized. Suddenly maintenance protocols mattered more than flashy initial builds. The hardest part isnt the concept itself, its getting people to care about outcomes they'll never personally witness. Thats where the cultural shift needs to happen, from quarterly earnings to generational responsibility, even if we never see the payoff ourselves.
1000% -- Such a great comment. And exactly how I think about these things. This is the question of our times! How to get people to think beyond their own time horizon. Would love to hear more about how these conversations played out and how peoples minds were changed when forced to think longer term.
Great post! Doing better for the overall health of the planet and all those living things we share it with does often start small and incrementally. Learning the indigenous history of the land we call home is a great place to start. Also, break big things into small goals. It took me ten years to tear out my lawn and put in a drought resistant, native friendly garden, add solar panels to my house and go from 100% gas car, to plug in hybrid, to full electric (which I charge 99% with solar power), secure a rain barrel and install it as the drain for my washing machine to recapture the gray water produced with laundry (a shockingly large amount even with a hyper “efficient” washing machine. You can’t look at things as “all or nothing”. Big things happen with little steps in the direction you want to go. The best thing I can do as a future ancestor is to live by example and pass my love of the natural world, and therefore conservation, down through my children and grandchildren. I also reflect those themes in my fictional writing. Exploring the past, present and future and how we might imagine a different way of interacting with the world, and each other.
Such a beautiful reflection, Jamie! Thanks. You're doing so much. Living by example indeed! Well done. 100% -- it's easy to look at things as all or none, but just starting is the key, no matter how small.
Look back to look forward. So often we use our familiar landscape as our baseline rather than the one that prevailed for 1000's of years. Aotearoa was 80% tree cover until 800 years ago. How do we get close to there?
Use reliable science to inform decisions on trees. In a switch from pasture to trees - of any sort:
We don't have major losses to ecosystems
We don't lose biodiversity when we replace plants that are cm tall with plants that are tens of metres tall; we create more habitat, especially for invertebrates, birds, fungi....
We increase soil quality; we change from compacted to permeable, with greater water-holding capacity and flood mitigation capability. All/any tree cover >2m tall will intercept and transpire more water than pasture cover, and it will smooth water yield curves - check Scion Dean Meason's work.
We reduce erosion potential by planting any tree types - read research from MWLR esp by Chris Phillips, Mike Marden et al.
All trees contain more fuel compared to pasture.
All ecosystems that lack diversity are more vulnerable to pests and pathogens.
a huge threat to all our forests are mammalian, particularly ungulate pests. Greater efforts to manage those are separately needed.
Trees. That is the only thing my thinking ( collapse aware) has led to and one that I am actively pursuing. Plant trees. Plant as many as possible and encourage others to do so. I chose not to have children, my legacy (to be so bold ) is to planet earth. To be a better guardian. Although I fear this is wishful thinking. What is going to grow and how will organic growth be affected when the planet sears past 2 degrees ( around 2030 they say) and burns into 3 + and beyond. If we could time travel to 2050, and be in the world of high temps, climate refugees, failed crops, broken economy, world wide death - what would those survivors wish they had done or put in place to ameliorate their life situation? My first thought was that your title should be ‘a bitter legacy’ but I am hoping for better. So Trees.
This is exactly what my novel, FREEHAND 2173 explores. Only it’s 150 years in the future! I learned so much writing about it and am still learning new ways of thinking and living, from the experience.
The 'grandchildren test' is such a clean filter for cutting through noise. I've seen teams use similar long-horizon thinking in infrastructure planning, where decisions had to account for 50+ year lifecycles, and it completely changed what got prioritized. Suddenly maintenance protocols mattered more than flashy initial builds. The hardest part isnt the concept itself, its getting people to care about outcomes they'll never personally witness. Thats where the cultural shift needs to happen, from quarterly earnings to generational responsibility, even if we never see the payoff ourselves.
I guess it comes down to “can we hold love in our hearts for people we will never know”.
A perfect framing -- having empathy for those we never know.
1000% -- Such a great comment. And exactly how I think about these things. This is the question of our times! How to get people to think beyond their own time horizon. Would love to hear more about how these conversations played out and how peoples minds were changed when forced to think longer term.
Great post! Doing better for the overall health of the planet and all those living things we share it with does often start small and incrementally. Learning the indigenous history of the land we call home is a great place to start. Also, break big things into small goals. It took me ten years to tear out my lawn and put in a drought resistant, native friendly garden, add solar panels to my house and go from 100% gas car, to plug in hybrid, to full electric (which I charge 99% with solar power), secure a rain barrel and install it as the drain for my washing machine to recapture the gray water produced with laundry (a shockingly large amount even with a hyper “efficient” washing machine. You can’t look at things as “all or nothing”. Big things happen with little steps in the direction you want to go. The best thing I can do as a future ancestor is to live by example and pass my love of the natural world, and therefore conservation, down through my children and grandchildren. I also reflect those themes in my fictional writing. Exploring the past, present and future and how we might imagine a different way of interacting with the world, and each other.
Such a beautiful reflection, Jamie! Thanks. You're doing so much. Living by example indeed! Well done. 100% -- it's easy to look at things as all or none, but just starting is the key, no matter how small.
Look back to look forward. So often we use our familiar landscape as our baseline rather than the one that prevailed for 1000's of years. Aotearoa was 80% tree cover until 800 years ago. How do we get close to there?
Use reliable science to inform decisions on trees. In a switch from pasture to trees - of any sort:
We don't have major losses to ecosystems
We don't lose biodiversity when we replace plants that are cm tall with plants that are tens of metres tall; we create more habitat, especially for invertebrates, birds, fungi....
We increase soil quality; we change from compacted to permeable, with greater water-holding capacity and flood mitigation capability. All/any tree cover >2m tall will intercept and transpire more water than pasture cover, and it will smooth water yield curves - check Scion Dean Meason's work.
We reduce erosion potential by planting any tree types - read research from MWLR esp by Chris Phillips, Mike Marden et al.
All trees contain more fuel compared to pasture.
All ecosystems that lack diversity are more vulnerable to pests and pathogens.
a huge threat to all our forests are mammalian, particularly ungulate pests. Greater efforts to manage those are separately needed.
Thanks Chris -- well said. Shifting baselines infects us all. I wrote about this recently.
'Ka mua, ka muri'
Trees. That is the only thing my thinking ( collapse aware) has led to and one that I am actively pursuing. Plant trees. Plant as many as possible and encourage others to do so. I chose not to have children, my legacy (to be so bold ) is to planet earth. To be a better guardian. Although I fear this is wishful thinking. What is going to grow and how will organic growth be affected when the planet sears past 2 degrees ( around 2030 they say) and burns into 3 + and beyond. If we could time travel to 2050, and be in the world of high temps, climate refugees, failed crops, broken economy, world wide death - what would those survivors wish they had done or put in place to ameliorate their life situation? My first thought was that your title should be ‘a bitter legacy’ but I am hoping for better. So Trees.
This is exactly what my novel, FREEHAND 2173 explores. Only it’s 150 years in the future! I learned so much writing about it and am still learning new ways of thinking and living, from the experience.
Nice one, Jamie -- sounds interesting!
Great work! And I hear you re: title, but I hope not either!
Re: trees -- fabulous, just make sure they're the right kind in the right places. Couple of posts to consider: https://predirections.substack.com/p/should-we-just-plant-trees-everywhere and https://predirections.substack.com/p/rules-for-reforestation
The long term thinking around deep systemic social change inspires me everyday.
So inspiring isn't it! I've pivoted some of my research to be more interdisciplinary working with social scientists because of this.